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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, although experts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant division means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, political observers suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.