Why Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he planned to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is another development in the president's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia done," he said.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president benefited from a long record of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his first term, encompassing his choice to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The US president, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the global economy and intensify the war.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
The president often boasts about his skill to sit down and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the hostilities any closer to a resolution.
Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin agreed to a summit in Alaska just as it appeared likely that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then promoted the possible summit in Hungary.
The following day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
However the president of Ukraine later commented on the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and privately pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including land Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally settled on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – something Russia has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that concluding the hostilities is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when neither side desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.